Research

Publications

Can Peo­ple Learn About ‘Black Swans’? Exper­i­men­tal Evi­dence (link|data|code)

– Review of Finan­cial Stud­ies, Forth­com­ing

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

 

Vari­ance After-Effects Bias Risk Per­cep­tion in Humans  (code|data)

– Cur­rent Biol­o­gy, vol 26, June 2016

Media cov­er­age: Syd­ney Morn­ing Her­ald, Uniken, Busi­ness Think, The Australian Finan­cial Review

Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Bernard Balleine, Tony Berrada & Joel Pearson

 

Learn­ing About Unsta­ble, Pub­licly Unob­serv­able Pay­offs (code|data)

 — Review of Finan­cial Stud­ies, vol 28 issue 7, June 2015

Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts

 

The Neur­al Rep­re­sen­ta­tion of Unex­pect­ed Uncer­tain­ty Dur­ing Val­ue-Based
Deci­sion Mak­ing

 — Neu­ron, vol 79 issue 1, 191 – 201, 2013

Media cov­er­age: ABC TV The Busi­ness, Uniken, Busi­ness Think

Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Simon Dunne, Peter Bossaerts & John O’Doherty

 

Do Not Bet On The Unknown Ver­sus Try To Find Out More: Esti­ma­tion Uncer­tain­ty And ”Unex­pect­ed Uncer­tain­ty” Both Mod­u­late Explo­ration (Open Access link)

 — Fron­tiers in Neu­ro­science 6:150, 2012

Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts

 

Risk, Unex­pect­ed Uncer­tain­ty, and Esti­ma­tion Uncer­tain­ty: Bayesian Learn­ing in Unsta­ble Set­tings (Open Access link)

 — PLoS Com­pu­ta­tion­al Biol­o­gy 7(1), 2011

Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts

 

Current Working Papers

 

“Out­lier Blind­ness”: Effi­cient Cod­ing Gen­er­ates an Inabil­i­ty to Rep­re­sent Extreme Val­ues (link)

 — To be pre­sent­ed at the AFA 2019

Joint with MICHAEL WOODFORD

 

The “Water­fall Illu­sion” in the Finan­cial Mar­kets: Risk Per­cep­tion Is Dis­tort­ed After Pri­or Expo­sure to Extreme Risk (link)

 — June 2018

Select­ed for the NBER Sum­mer Insti­tute 2015 (Eco­nom­ic Fluc­tu­a­tions Behavioral/Macro)

Joint with LIONNEL PRADIER AND TALIS PUTNINS

 

Pick­ing pen­nies (link|down­load data)

– sub­mit­ted, June 2018

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

 

Work in Progress

The Neur­al Sub­strates of the Pick­ing Pen­nies Bias

Joint with MICHAEL FRANK, MATT NASSAR and MEHDI ADIBI

 

‘What You See Is What You Hear’ In Risk Per­cep­tion: Sound Exac­er­bates The “Risk After-Effect’’ Visu­al Bias

Joint with BERNARD BALLEINE, GIDI NAVE AND LIONNEL PRADIER

 

Vari­able Selec­tion in Every­day Finan­cial Fore­cast­ing

Joint with TONY BERRADA and  MATEUS JOFFILY

 

Old working papers

Fooled By Ran­dom­ness? Finan­cial Deci­sion-Mak­ing under tail risk

 — Novem­ber 2015

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

Close Cousins? Bayesian Ver­sus Adap­tive Learn­ing Under Mod­el Uncer­tain­ty About Tail Risk

— Novem­ber 2016

Elise Payzan-LeNestour