Publications
Variance After-Effects Bias Risk Perception in Humans 
— Current Biology, vol 26, June 2016
Media coverage: Sydney Morning Herald, Uniken, Business Think, The Australian Financial Review
Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Bernard Balleine, Tony Berrada & Joel Pearson
Learning About Unstable, Publicly Unobservable Payoffs
— Review of Financial Studies, vol 28 issue 7, June 2015
Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts
The Neural Representation of Unexpected Uncertainty During Value-Based
Decision Making
— Neuron, vol 79 issue 1, 191-201, 2013
Media coverage: ABC TV The Business, Uniken, Business Think
Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Simon Dunne, Peter Bossaerts & John O’Doherty
Do Not Bet On The Unknown Versus Try To Find Out More: Estimation Uncertainty And ”Unexpected Uncertainty” Both Modulate Exploration (Open Access link)
— Frontiers in Neuroscience 6:150, 2012
Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts
Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings (Open Access link)
— PLoS Computational Biology 7(1), 2011
Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts
Current Working Papers
Can People Learn About ‘Black Swans’? Experimental Evidence (link | download data)
— July 2017
Elise Payzan-LeNestour
The Waterfall Illusion, and How Exposure to Extreme Volatility Distorts Risk Perceptions in Markets (link)
— November 2016
Selected for the NBER Summer Institute 2015 (Economic Fluctuations Behavioral/Macro)
Joint with LIONNEL PRADIER AND TALIS PUTNINS
Picking pennies (link | download data)
— January 2017
Elise Payzan-LeNestour
‘What You See Is What You Hear’ In Risk Perception: Sound Exacerbates The “Risk After-Effect’’ Visual Bias
— November 2016
Joint with LIONNEL PRADIER
Work in Progress
The Neural Substrates of the Picking Pennies Bias
Joint with MICHAEL FRANK, MATT NASSAR and MEHDI ADIBI
“Outlier” Blindness Caused by Neuronal Adaptation: Experimental Test
Joint with MICHAEL WOODFORD
Variable Selection in Everyday Financial Forecasting
Joint with TONY BERRADA and MATEUS JOFFILY
Old working papers
Fooled By Randomness? Financial Decision-Making under tail risk
— November 2015
Elise Payzan-LeNestour
Close Cousins? Bayesian Versus Adaptive Learning Under Model Uncertainty About Tail Risk
— November 2016
