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Research

Publications

Variance After-Effects Bias Risk Perception in Humans Adobe_PDF_file_icon_24x24 (code | data)
— Current Biology, vol 26, June 2016

Media coverage: Sydney Morning Herald, Uniken, Business Think, The Australian Financial Review

Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Bernard Balleine, Tony Berrada & Joel Pearson

 

Learning About Unstable, Publicly Unobservable Payoffs Adobe_PDF_file_icon_24x24 (code | data)
Review of Financial Studies, vol 28 issue 7, June 2015

Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts

 

The Neural Representation of Unexpected Uncertainty During Value-Based
Decision Making
Adobe_PDF_file_icon_24x24
— Neuron, vol 79 issue 1, 191-201, 2013

Media coverage: ABC TV The Business, Uniken, Business Think

Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Simon Dunne, Peter Bossaerts & John O’Doherty

 

Do Not Bet On The Unknown Versus Try To Find Out More: Estimation Uncertainty And ”Unexpected Uncertainty” Both Modulate Exploration (Open Access link)
— Frontiers in Neuroscience 6:150, 2012

Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts

 

Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings (Open Access link)
PLoS Computational Biology 7(1), 2011

Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts

 

Current Working Papers

 

Can People Learn About ‘Black Swans’? Experimental Evidence (link | data | code)
July 2017

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

 

The Waterfall Illusion, and How Prior Exposure to Extreme Risk Distorts Risk Perception (link)
November 2016

Selected for the NBER Summer Institute 2015 (Economic Fluctuations Behavioral/Macro)

Joint with LIONNEL PRADIER AND TALIS PUTNINS

 

Picking pennies (link | download data)
January 2017

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

 

‘What You See Is What You Hear’ In Risk Perception: Sound Exacerbates The “Risk After-Effect’’ Visual Bias
— November 2016

Joint with LIONNEL PRADIER

 

Work in Progress

The Neural Substrates of the Picking Pennies Bias

Joint with MICHAEL FRANK, MATT NASSAR and MEHDI ADIBI

 

“Outlier” Blindness Caused by Neuronal Adaptation: Experimental Test

Joint with MICHAEL WOODFORD

 

Vari­able Selec­tion in Every­day Finan­cial Fore­cast­ing

Joint with TONY BERRADA and  MATEUS JOFFILY

 

Old working papers

Fooled By Randomness? Financial Decision-Making under tail risk
November 2015

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

Close Cousins? Bayesian Versus Adaptive Learning Under Model Uncertainty About Tail Risk
— November 2016

Elise Payzan-LeNestour