Publications
Can People Learn About ‘Black Swans’? Experimental Evidence (code|data)
– Review of Financial Studies, vol 31 issue 12, December 2018
Elise Payzan-LeNestour
Variance After-Effects Bias Risk Perception in Humans (code|data)
– Current Biology, vol 26, June 2016
Media coverage: Sydney Morning Herald, Uniken, Business Think, The Australian Financial Review
Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Bernard Balleine, Tony Berrada & Joel Pearson
Learning About Unstable, Publicly Unobservable Payoffs (code|data)
— Review of Financial Studies, vol 28 issue 7, June 2015
Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts
The Neural Representation of Unexpected Uncertainty During Value-Based
Decision Making
— Neuron, vol 79 issue 1, 191 – 201, 2013
Media coverage: ABC TV The Business, Uniken, Business Think, Sydney Morning Herald
Elise Payzan-LeNestour, Simon Dunne, Peter Bossaerts & John O’Doherty
Do Not Bet On The Unknown Versus Try To Find Out More: Estimation Uncertainty And ”Unexpected Uncertainty” Both Modulate Exploration (Open Access link)
— Frontiers in Neuroscience 6:150, 2012
Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts
Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings (Open Access link)
— PLoS Computational Biology 7(1), 2011
Elise Payzan-LeNestour and Peter Bossaerts
Current Working Papers
“Outlier Blindness”: Efficient Coding Generates an Inability to Represent Extreme Values (link)
– August 2020 (R&R, The Journal of Financial Economics)
Presented at the AFA 2019
Joint with MICHAEL WOODFORD
The “Waterfall Illusion” in the Financial Markets: Risk Perception Is Distorted after Prior Exposure to Extreme Risk (link)
– July 2020 (under review)
Selected for the NBER Summer Institute 2015 (Economic Fluctuations Behavioral/Macro). Best Paper Award 2017, Behavioural Finance and Capital Markets Conference, sponsored by Capital Markets CRC. WINNER Best Paper Award 2019, “Measurement of Traders in the Field”, sponsored by P&K Pühringer Foundation and cereneo
Joint with LIONNEL PRADIER AND TALIS PUTNINS
Friend or Foe: The Influence of Ambient Sound on Risk PerceptionNEW (link)
– August 2020 (under review)
Joint with BERNARD BALLEINE, JAMES DORAN, GIDI NAVE AND LIONNEL PRADIER
Craving for Money? Empirical Evidence from the Laboratory and the FieldNEW (link)
– August 2020 (under review)
Joint with JAMES DORAN
Work in Progress
The Neural Substrates of the “Picking Pennies Bias”
Joint with GIUSEPPE UGAZIO and NINA MARIE SOOTER
Involvement of the Mesolimbic DA pathway in the “Picking Penies Bias”: Genetic Study
Joint with MICHAEL FRANK, MATT NASSAR and MEHDI ADIBI
Building “superforecasting” skills in i.i.d environments? Laboratory experiments
Joint with TONY BERRADA
A Neuroeconomic investigation of craving for high-stakes monetary gambles
Joint with BERNARD BALLEINE and MIKE LEPELLEY
“Attention Utility Theory”: Modeling decision-making under risk using neurochemistry
Joint with CHEW SOO HONG, RICHARD EBSTEIN, SERENELLA TOLOMEO AND ZHONG SONGFA
Using biofeedback for improving market efficiency: A proof-of-concept harnessing the latest neurofinance, psychophysiology, and machine learning sciences
Joint with BERNARD BALLEINE, JAMES DORAN, ANDREW LO AND NIGEL LOVELL
Previous working papers
Picking Pennies (link|download data)
– October 2019
Elise Payzan-LeNestour
Fooled by Randomness? Financial Decision-Making under Tail Risk
— November 2015
Elise Payzan-LeNestour
Close Cousins? Bayesian versus Adaptive Learning under Model Uncertainty about Tail Risk
— November 2016